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Economie |
Scris de Ninel Ganea |
Marţi, 16 August 2011 09:07 |
Traim vremuri de indoiala, incertitudine si prabusire totala a standardelor, dupa cum poate constata orice om nereeducat complet. Ba mai mult, intelepciunea moderna ne spune ca insasi ideea de criteriu obiectiv (altul decat cel matematic-empiric) reprezinta o iluzie. Toate par de- a-ndoaselea si iti creaza probleme de orientare in noianul de informatii, pareri, opinii si manipulari din viata de zi cu zi. Totusi, cred ca am "descoperit" o metoda prin care poti sa stai la suprafata destul de bine chiar si in conditiile de astazi. Singura norma de avut in vedere o reprezinta inversarea intelepciunii moderne. Daca, de pilda, conventia sociala contemporana in privinta copiilor este de a-i lasa cat mai liberi pentru "a-si dezvolta personalitatea", "a-si descoperi eul, latura artistica, sexualitatea", etc, etc, atunci lucrul de bun-simt este de a face exact pe dos. In toata aceasta dinamica, insa, nu trebuie uitata legea aristotelica a masurii, considerata de Irving Babbitt ca fiind legea suprema a vietii deoarece le contine pe toate celelalte.Insa cateva exemple mult mai amuzante vin din sfaturile si recomandarile de investitii ale marilor oameni de afaceri si economisti mondiali. Spre exemplu, Nouriel Roubini, noua vedeta a economiei si adoratul ziarelor de pretutindeni a declarat recent ca isi tine toate economiile in bani de hartie. Pentru el, a investi in aur, in mancare sau in arme reprezinta un semn de paranoia. "Argumentul" furnizat de Roubini este urmatorul: "este mult mai bine sa fii sigur decat sa-ti para rau". "Dr. Doom" nu explica cum poti fi sigur cand detii doar bani de hartie, mai ales in conditiile in care tiparnitele bancilor centrale lucreaza in trei schimburi iar dobanzile se invart in jurul lui 0% . O profetie implinita si un mesaj pe gustul media au fost suficiente pentru ca economistul sa poata debita orice in prezent. (Despre predictii puteti citi pe scurt aici si aici ). In treacat fie spus, investitia in arme, mancare si aur inseamna practic cea mai sigura cale de independenta materiala. Dar Roubini nu a facut doar o gafa, deoarece aversiunea sa impotriva investitiilor in aur este sistematica. Iata, de pilda, ce declara in urma cu un an si jumatate, intr-un articol intitulat "The new bubble in the barbaric relic that is gold": "The recent rise in gold prices is only partially justified by fundamentals, and is in part a bubble that could easily go bust". Un alt mare sfatuitor, George Soros, a anuntat in primavara ca renunta la investitiile in aur. Ceea ce se pare ca a si facut. In registrul amuzant merita amintit ca pentru speculantul de origine maghiara aurul reprezenta in 2010 "the ultimate bubble". Insa de la acea declaratie el si-a dublat investitia in metalul galben, dupa care a vandut. Apoi, recent, au aparut informatii "pe surse" ca 75% din activele fondului reprezinta cash, dar singura informatie confirmata a fost ca Soros a achizitionat un pachet semnificativ dintr-o companie agricola localizata in Brazilia. In fine, un al treilea consultant de prestigiu in chestiuni financiare este Warren Buffett. Acesta scrie editoriale, scrisori si recomanda indirect oamenilor sa aiba incredere in guvernul american si in dolar. Cu toate astea, rapoartele financiare ale companiei sale Berkshire Hathaway indica exact contrariul, mai putin de 2% din totalul activelor fiind investite in obligatiuni ale statului. Pentru ca tabloul ipocriziei sa fie complet, Buffett a recomandat in ultimele zile guvernului sa treaca la un program de impozitare mult mai agresiv. "Prietenii mei şi cu mine am fost răsfăţaţi destul de către un Congres prietenos cu miliardarii. În timp ce săracii şi clasa de mijloc luptă pentru noi în Afganistan şi în timp ce majoritatea americanilor se chinuie să le ajungă banii de pe o zi pe alta, noi cei mega-bogaţi beneficiem în continuare de facilităţi fiscale extraordinare. Oamenii investesc pentru a face bani, iar potenţialele taxe niciodată nu i-au speriat", a afirmat intr-un articol preşedintele Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Din fericire, mai exista si investitori cu recomandari solide de protectie contra spolierii prin inflatie, cum ar fi Jim Rogers sau Peter Schiff, chiar daca ei nu au parte de celebritatea celor de mai sus. "I don't really own many commodities stocks. I mainly own commodities. Yale University did a study which showed that you would have made 300% more investing in commodities themselves rather than commodities stocks over the past several decades. When I say commodities, I'm not talking about stocks--I'm talking about commodities. I'm talking about real stuff", a afirmat saptamana trecuta Jim Rogers. Insa criteriul esential de evaluare, cel putin in chestiunile economice, il reprezinta intelegerea functionarii unei ordini a proprietatii private, cu corolarele ei implicite. In celelalte chestiuni, cred ca o teorie corecta a naturii umane poate rezolva o multime de dileme si false probleme. |